Μία νέα έρευνα από την Γαλλία, δείχνει ότι οι πωλήσεις ηλεκτρικών και υβριδικών οχημάτων παρουσίασαν αύξηση της τάξης του 80% το 2015, συγκρινόμενες με το 2014. Η έρευνα έγινε από την Avere-France και αυτό που γίνεται εμφανές, είναι ότι όσο περνάει ο καιρός, τόσο η δημοτικότητα αυτών των “πράσινων” οχημάτων αυξάνεται. Συγκεκριμένα, ο αριθμός τέτοιου είδους αυτοκινήτων αυξήθηκε περίπου κατά 11 φορές τα 4 τελευταία χρόνια – από τα 50.000, στα 565.000!
Όπως θα περίμενε κανείς, η χώρα στην οποία οφείλεται αυτή η δραματική αύξηση, είναι η Κίνα. Ενώ το 2011, κυκλοφορούσαν μόλις 5.200 plug-in υβριδικά και ηλεκτρικά αυτοκίνητα, το 2015, αυτά ήταν 214.283 το 2015 – 41 φορές πάνω! Αυτό σημαίνει ότι ενώ το 2011 η Κίνα αποτελούσε μόλις το 10% της παγκόσμιας αγοράς τέτοιων αυτοκινήτων, 4 χρόνια αργότερα, το ποσοστό είναι 38%.
Η δεύτερη μεγαλύτερη αγορά, είναι η δυτική Ευρώπη όπου 184.500 ηλεκτρικά/υβριδικά πωλήθηκαν το 2015 – 13 φορές περισσότερα απ’ ότι το 2011. Η μοναδική χώρα που “αντιστέκεται” στην τάση, είναι φυσικά οι Η.Π.Α. όπου το 2015, πωλήθηκαν 3% λιγότερα υβριδικά και ηλεκτρικά σε σύγκριση με το 2014. Ο λόγος είναι αυτός που φαντάζεσαι αλλά για να γίνουμε λίγο πιο συγκεκριμένοι, το κόστος της βενζίνης στις Η.Π.Α. ήταν $2.4 ανά γαλόνια το 2015 ενώ το 2014 ήταν κατά 94 cents αυξημένο. Όταν η βενζίνη είναι τόσο φθηνή, γιατί να πάρεις υβριδικό ή ηλεκτρικό;
Μια άλλη έρευνα της ABI Research, αναφέρει πως τα έσοδα από την αγορά των ηλεκτρικών αυτοκινήτων θα φτάσει τα 58 δισ. δολάρια το 2021, πέντε φορές περισσότερα από όσο ήταν το 2015.
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Smart Mobility on the Rise: Global Electric Vehicle Revenue to Hit $58 Billion in 2021
Scottsdale, Arizona – 09 May 2016
As extreme pollution and congestion in urban areas coupled with limited transportation options continues to challenge major cities across the globe, ABI Research, the leader in transformative technology innovation market intelligence, predicts an imminent rise in smart electric mobility. Data analysis forecasts global electric vehicle revenue will hit $58 billion in 2021, more than five times its market value in 2015.
“The role of vehicle electrication in urban areas is part of a broader smart mobility model that includes shared vehicles, charging options, and driverless electric vehicle fleets of cars, buses, trams, and light rail,” says Susan Beardslee, Senior Analyst at ABI Research. “No singular option prevails; in fact, innovative manufacturers are creating ways for them to converge.”
Leading automotive manufacturers Ford and BMW, for instance, are looking to create electric bikes that could fit and charge inside of a car. The goal is for drivers to then be able to ditch their cars and use the bikes as a more eco-friendly mode of transportation to complete the last leg of long journeys. Similarly, Tier 1 companies, like Continental, are designing and manufacturing batteries and engines that can better accommodate small, personal electric vehicles.
China is one region pushing particularly hard to make electric vehicles a reality, with regional vendors like BYD outselling larger OEMs like Chevy, Nissan, and Tesla by miles. And as newer urban electric transportation categories continue to emerge, such as three-wheeled vehicles more commonly referred to as velomobiles, so too do opportunities for emerging markets and the elderly or disabled.
“The U.S. is taking longer to embrace the trend, though, with many residents expressing hesitation to let go of their private, singular vehicles as we move toward a shared, smart mobility transportation model,” continues Beardslee. “Once the price point of electric vehicles starts to drop, as evident with Tesla’s Model 3 and the forthcoming Chevy Bolt, and manufacturers address range anxiety, we believe that the U.S. market will see a jump in its sales. Over time, we expect greater adoption through fleet purchases including Uber and Lyft.”
Personal mobility companies VeloMetro and EcoReco, for instance, are embracing the shared fleet mentality. Both companies are rolling out innovative personal transport vehicles that they plan to pilot with universities and municipalities in the months ahead.
“While the market’s current lack of sufficient standards and infrastructure is impacting the broader adoption of electric vehicles, we believe that the greater access, variety, and flexibility of electric vehicles and increasing urban congestion will positively influence future electric vehicle deployment and adoption,” concludes Beardslee. “The long-term forecasting of global energy needs from Exxon shows the sobering impact of an unsustainable 35% to 140% increase in energy requirements. Global consortia and public and private partnerships will continue to be leading efforts resulting in necessary change to our transportation industry.”
These findings are part of ABI Research’s Smart Transportation Service, which includes research reports, market data, insights, and competitive assessments.
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About ABI Research
For more than 25 years, ABI Research has stood at the forefront of technology market intelligence, partnering with innovative business leaders to implement informed, transformative technology decisions. The company employs a global team of senior analysts to provide comprehensive research and consulting services through deep quantitative forecasts, qualitative analyses and teardown services. An industry pioneer, ABI Research is proactive in its approach, frequently uncovering ground-breaking business cycles ahead of the curve and publishing research 18 to 36 months in advance of other organizations. In all, the company covers more than 60 services, spanning 11 technology sectors. For more information, visit www.abiresearch.com.
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