Έρευνα με ονομασία “Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies” της Navigant, δείχνει ότι μέχρι το 2017, τα οχήματα που κινούνται από “συμβατικούς κινητήρες” θα αποτελούν λιγότερο από το 50% των νέων αυτοκινήτων που πωλούνται στην αγορά.
Ενώ σε πρώτη ανάγνωση το συμπέρασμα μπορεί να παραπλανά με την έννοια ότι αναφέρεται στον αργό “θάνατο” των βενζινο/πετρελαιοκινητήρων, δεν εννοεί αυτό. Δεν λέει ότι τα υβριδικά, ηλεκτρικά, υδρογονοκίνητα οχήματα θα κυριαρχήσουν μέχρι το 2017. Η έρευνα, υπολογίζει ως “συμβατικούς”, τους ατμοσφαιρικούς στην ουσία κινητήρες, αφού θεωρεί πως οποιαδήποτε “σύγχρονη” τεχνολογία βγάζει τον κινητήρα από την στενή αυτή κατηγορία. Επίσης, τονίζει πως “δεν υπάρχει μία μοναδική τεχνολογία που θα κυριαρχήσει στην βελτίωση της οικονομίας καυσίμου των αυτοκινήτων μέχρι το 2025”.
Σύμφωνα με τη Navigant, η “δημοφιλέστερη” τεχνολογία μέσα στην επόμενη δεκαετία, θα είναι τα συστήματα Stop/Start που θα εξοπλίζουν περίπου το 58% των νέων οχημάτων μέχρι το 2025. Άλλες τεχνολογίες που θα βοηθήσουν στην περαιτέρω μείωση της κατανάλωσης, θα είναι η χρήση νέων υλικών, η υπερτροφοδότηση σε συνδυασμό με τον μικρότερο κυβισμό αλλά και οι πρόοδοι στην μετάδοση.
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Conventional Gasoline Models are Expected to Represent Less Than Half of Vehicles Sold Worldwide by 2017
December 23, 2014
Stop-start capability anticipated to be the most important innovation in improving fuel efficiency, report concludes
A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy, including global market forecasts for light-duty vehicle sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, through 2025.
Multiple factors, including increasingly strict global standards to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, are driving manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles. Although the use of alternative fuels and electric power is expected to continue growing, gasoline is anticipated to remain the leading fuel in the coming years, albeit in unconventional vehicles that employ a range of fuel-efficiency technologies, such as smaller engines and turbocharging. Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, conventional gasoline-powered vehicles are expected to make up less than half of new vehicles sold worldwide by 2017.
“There is no single technology that will dominate fuel efficiency improvements over the forecast period through 2025,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The focus, instead, will be on incremental improvements in engines and transmissions, along with weight reduction in as many places as possible.”
Perhaps the most important innovation, according to the report, is the wide adoption of stop-start vehicles (SSVs), which eliminate idling when the vehicle is stopped and restart the engine when the driver moves from brake to accelerator. Over time, the SSV is likely to add functionality to become more of a mild hybrid, with the ability to capture and reuse kinetic energy without the expense of a large battery. Navigant Research expects sales of gasoline and diesel SSVs to reach 63 million annually by 2025, representing 58 percent of all vehicles sold in that year.
The report, “Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies,” analyzes the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy. It examines the consumer demand and regulatory background related to engine technology and lightweight materials for increasing fuel efficiency in vehicles. Global market forecasts for LDV sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, extend through 2025. Additional forecasts by region are provided for the volumes and associated revenue of key fuel efficiency systems and materials. The report also examines the approach of the leading vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and industry players and evaluates how the market for lighter and more efficient vehicle technologies will evolve. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
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